January In Review | Monthly Report

January 31, 2020

Easing into the year

January was a decent month for us as a team. While we have finished the month with an acceptable result on trades put out in the channel, we had a fair bit of back & forth with a total of 5 losses against 5 wins. In this report we will be looking back at this months performance to see where we did well, where we did bad & how we can improve.


January Performance

Wins: 5
Losses:
5
Win Rate: 50%
Pip gain (+/-): +334
Total RR achieved: 7.45
Possible percentage gain (2% risk): 14.90%


Trade 1: GBPJPY

Overview of GBPJPY

Pip Gain/Loss: -44 pips
Risk Reward Gain/Loss: -1 RR

GBPJPY was the first trade of the year and unfortunately for us it was a loss. We took a -44 pip hit on this trade, here’s why I think we lost out: GBPJPY entry was taken on the 1 hour time frame. The lower timeframes are inaccurate and we should have really waited for a retest & bullish confirmation on the 4H chart, as that is where we found our confluences.

Lesson: Wait for confirmation on the suitable time frames for that specific trade setup AND higher time frames = higher accuracy.


Trade 2: CADJPY

Overview of CADJPY

Pip Gain/Loss: +62 pips
Risk Reward Gain/Loss: +3 RR

This trade amassed 62 pips and 1:3 RR winning back our loss from GBPJPY three times over, thanks to the power of consistent risk reward management. It was a supply based trade – which I have been teaching in a series of videos in the Technical Floor – and focused on a key level for our target.

Lesson: Use consistent Risk/Reward management to overcome losses easily, AND practise the use of key levels and supply & demand.


Trade 3: AUDUSD

Overview of AUDUSD

Pip Gain/Loss: +66 pips
Risk Reward Gain/Loss: +1.25 RR

A second win in a row here when TP1 was hit on AUDUSD. We only took half profits at this level before the rest of the trade closed out at breakeven, securing 1.25 RR in total. This trade focused on demand & key levels, and partial profit taking saved us from wasting our time.

Lesson: Take partial profits at areas of interest to secure gains in case of reversals.


Trade 4: USDJPY

Overview of USDJPY

Pip Gain/Loss: -17 pips
Risk Reward Gain/Loss: -1 RR

I took a loss here on USDJPY when it unexpectedly sprung resistance and cleared my stop loss. This supply based short position was entered off a bearish engulfing candle, then US CPI news shot the trade through the roof and took out my stop loss.

Lesson: Stay aware of fundamentals at all times, don’t stress over the economics behind the market but be logical about trade timing and always keep in mind news that will cause volatility.


Trade 5: AUDNZD

Overview of AUDNZD

Pip Gain/Loss: -42 pips
Risk Reward Gain/Loss: -1 RR

A loss followed by another loss – AUDNZD fell right to my stop loss from entry with no upside at all. This was a poor trade, technicals lined up but NZD economics were offering strength until Coronavirus worries dampened it which took out our position.

Lesson: Plan your trade & trade your plan. I didn’t break my rules here but unfortunately it didn’t work out. Manage your risk always to keep inevitable losses like this at bay.


Trade 6: OIL

Overview of OIL

Pip Gain/Loss: -37 pips
Risk Reward Gain/Loss: -1 RR

Third loss in a row… that’s a streak! Shortly after entry Oil collapsed through my trend line and support wiping out the stop in a matter of hours. I followed my rules on this position but could have potentially focused on the 4H timeframe for better accuracy than the 1H that I used for my entry.

Thanks to our risk management, we would be yet to fall into loss if all trades were followed – even with a 3 trade losing streak!

Lesson: Focus on the higher timeframes for your setups. Higher timeframe = higher accuracy.


Trade 7: EURAUD

Overview of EURAUD

Pip Gain/Loss: +60 pips
Risk Reward Gain/Loss: +1.2 RR

I made the most of some Aussie fundamental news to catch a nice drop on EURAUD for +60 pips gain. Half position was closed, and half closed at breakeven so we only totalled 1.2 RR instead of 2.4 on this setup. It was a solid setup focusing on supply & a change in trend structure on the higher timeframes (Weekly/Daily).

Lesson: Use the weekly & daily charts to determine trend direction, and then trade win line with the trend using scaled down entries.


Trade 8: GBPNZD

Overview of GBPNZD

Pip Gain/Loss: +120 pips
Risk Reward Gain/Loss: +3 RR

By far my favourite trade of the month. Very little drawdown and a nice gap to the upside after the weekend. This trade followed the long-term trend & I entered from daily support & demand zone. A big gain of 3 RR wipes clean all 3 losses and puts gain for the week up at 4.45 (8.9% gain at 2% risk per trade).

Lesson: Supply & demand runs the market. You can see how often it has helped to catch immaculate trades with great risk/reward & fast movements.

Lesson: Risk/reward is everything. You can wipe clean a number of losses with a single win if you manage your risk/reward ratios properly.

Lesson: Never lose your cool on a losing streak. They happen to the best of us but maintaining a clear mind and sticking to the plan will overcome it.


Trade 9: Gold

Overview of Gold

Pip Gain/Loss: +150 pips
Risk Reward Gain/Loss: +4 RR

Gold was a hit. I gave out analysis covering a head & shoulders formation and confirmation formed allowing us to get in the market and ride it down. It didn’t quite reach the target I provided but I took profits at a key level (+150 pips) and with 190 pips potential I hope those who caught it took some profits off. Around 3-5 RR was achievable on this position, I took 4.

Lesson: Always take partial profits and use initiative to take full profits when price reaches key levels.

Lesson: Risk/reward continues to show its importance. Gold was a major boost to the month’s performance.


Trade 10: CADJPY

Overview of CADJPY

Pip Gain/Loss: -16 pips
Risk Reward Gain/Loss: -1 RR

CADJPY was the final trade of the month which turned out to be a loss. I used a limit order on this position and unfortunately selling pressure was too strong for the demand zone to maintain. In & out quickly for -16 pips. I put this loss down to the use of a limit order because we couldn’t get full confirmation, that’s just the risk we take with these tight stop loss positions.

Lesson: Be wary when using limit orders because there’s a higher risk of loss. It is always safer to wait for confirmation.


Conclusion

Wins: 5
Losses:
5
Win Rate: 50%
Pip gain (+/-): +334
Total RR achieved: 7.45
Possible percentage gain (2% risk): 14.90%

January was a good month overall and we pulled a nice profit. The trades given out offered +14.9% gain at 2% risk per trade, good consistent gains for conservative trading. The quality of trades could have been better as I’d have preferred to have managed higher than 50% win rate.

Going forward into February we can take what we learned from this months trades into account to get a higher win rate & pull a higher profit.

Let’s smash another month!

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